The US intelligence community long ago gamed out all the risks surrounding a conflict with Iran, including the possibility Iran would close the Straits of Hormuz.
If the Trump administration and Hegseth are surprised now, it's because they've never listened to, and sidelined, the experts.
That's pretty much a given.
Trump can't sit still long enough to hear a proper briefing and all Hegseth hears when briefed are reasons he can't swing his you know what around, and since his is the biggest one anyone has (except his boss of course), no one is going to tell him he can't, so he stops listening/asking and does what he wants.
There was never any chance they'd consider how this could quickly go south before pulling the trigger.
@petergleick I used to think this was a war for oil. Then I thought it was a war for stupidity. But now I think I know what it’s for:
It’s a war for boosting falling church attendance..
@petergleick that's the thing with idiots. They think they know better, than literally everyone.
@petergleick US administration under Trump actively went against the advice of the Pentagon, CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency, State Department Intel and Research and National Security Agency, before this war kicked off.
Trump is effectively suiciding America for Israel and ignoring his own intelligence analysts, and he's doing that on behalf of religious extremists both in his administration and Netanyahu's.
Welcome to what future historians will call #ww3
@petergleick Turns out "The Deep State" is people who know shit and will tell you when you want to do something stupid.
@petergleick Trump cares more about the haircuts in his administration than expertise. At least the world saw what is the alternative of Democracy.
