If the first two weeks of the US/Israel assault on Iran have shown anything it is that the attackers woefully underestimated the ability of Iran to mount a defensive series of counter attacks and the subsequent impact this would have on the global economy.
You might argue that the Tangerine Tyrant & Netanyahu really didn't care, but as Iran has escalated the costs of the conflict, so the war has extended as they seek to constrain Iran's response.
@ChrisMayLA6 I love to know Mossad’s true opinion on mounting an attack on Iran. Israeli intelligence appears to be very efficient and objective. So either political appointees within Mossad overrode the opinions of intelligence specialists or politicians ignored advice. We shall probably never know.
This Iran war shows an utter disregard for the lessons of 50 years of anti-American guerilla warware.
Of course, Iran was not going to have a conventional shooting war against US aircraft and ships. Instead, attacking the Strait and neighbours was thr obvious response.
Similarly, the definition of "success" for #Iran is simple regime survival. They will outlast Trump's attention span - and use the devastation he caused as a recruitment tool.
1/n
@TCatInReality @ChrisMayLA6 I agree. This is why I keep saying the USA and Israel have to win this war. Not because it's a "good" thing. It most definitely is not. But the alternative is the regime in Iran surviving. I bet that realisation hasn't even started dawning on Trump and his merry bunch of morons.
@rozeboosje @TCatInReality @ChrisMayLA6 there are many oppressive regimes in the world and each country’s form of repression is different from the other. But Iran is a mature well educated nation. Perhaps not as well-off as the US but definitely not in grinding poverty. And they will find as they have done in the past a response to a repressive regime.
But it is not the job of the USA or any other nation to stick their nose into their domestic politics.
@peterbrown @rozeboosje @TCatInReality
Indeed; as international law would dictate....
@ChrisMayLA6 @peterbrown @TCatInReality Absolutely. But that ship has sailed. The USA and Israel should come to regret their actions. How we're going to achieve that is anyone's guess. Them starting this war was unacceptable, but that bobsleigh is hurtling down the track whether we like it or not, and nobody can stop it until it reaches the finish line, or it crashes out hitting god knows how many spectators in the process.
But, that doesn't mean Trump is going to "lose" his war with #Iran
Altho never (consistently) defined, the goals of this war are quite clear:
- Dominance of the headlines in America as a "strong man"
- Raising oil prices to benefit the fossil fuel oligarchs, esp Putin
- Further consolidation of Trump's imperial control of US institutions
- Massive grifts (see Kushner's latest ME shakedown)
By those measures, the war is a smashing success.
2/2
Yes, I think that's a fair analysis - there are war aims & they are bing fulfilled... they're just not those one might have expected (pr perhaps we would have done?)
@ChrisMayLA6 There are people though in Trump's administration like Bannon who want to annihilate the global economy, they are Accelerationists in ideology and they know exactly what they are doing.
@ChrisMayLA6 T&N have painted themselves into a corner. The war has progressed to a stage where there cannot be a stalemate that would allow the Iranian regime to survive and regroup. I think the fools are actually surprised that the regime didn't just give up, and that the Iranian people haven't yet plucked up the courage to overrun the IRGC - they KNOW what will happen when they try to stand up to those brutal oppressors as long as those still wield real power in Iran.
