Trying to predict by-elections may be fools' game, but Paul Whiteley (UEssex) has had a go (as have many others, of course), and concludes while a Green victory *is* possible, Labour may scrape through because the anti-Labour vote is split between the Green Party of England & Wales & Reform UK Ltd.
The locals want a local election, the commentariat want a weather vane, but in the end the canvasses may be the key for wavering voters?
@ChrisMayLA6 Interesting analysis, but it's notable that the article is dated February 20, 2026 12.57pm GMT - whereas the omnisis survey data (sample size 452 - a bit bigger than the Caerphilly example mentioned by the article) was also published on the same day. Omnisis shows Greens ahead of Reform and Labour, even before tactical voting is introduced. Also - all tactical voting sites have come out advising #VoteGreen. 🤞 🤞 🤞 #GortonAndDenton https://www.omnisis.co.uk/poll-result/constituency-polling-for-by-election-in-gorton-and-denton/
@ChrisMayLA6 Also worth remembering that by now many voters there will have already voted by post. It would be interesting to know how respective 'GOPV' - 'Get Out the Postal Vote' - operations have gone but I would imagine that those running them will be keeping that information very close to their respective chests!
