Post · bonfire.mavnn.eu

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

Woke up to the good news that the Gorton & Denton by-election was won by the Greens, who stomped all over Reform UK and left Labour in third place—in a constituency where Labour hasn't lost an election since 1931.

Reform UK candidate showed his true colours, ranting about a "Woke and Muslim conspiracy", of course. (This is the guy who wants to change the law to force women to get married and have more babies, deport non-whites, and criminalize LGBT+ people, starting with the trans.)

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@[email protected] · 3 months ago

i'm an american and based on party names

reform shouldn't mean make everything immeasurable worse

and

labour shouldn't mean forced labor for everyone who isn't a millionaire

and yet, here you in the UK have ended up

thank you for waking up and voting Green

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@samiamsam I didn't get to vote in this election! I'm in another country (Scotland).

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross I’m now keeping everything crossed for the Scottish Parliament elections in May. The news media seem to make a lot about this alleged “insurgence of Reform” in Scotland. And I’m not saying that it can’t happen. But I really hope that it won’t.

As a foreigner, I felt that I found refuge when I moved here from England, and even a medium-high vote for Reform would really shake that belief. So, here’s hoping.

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@TheCybermatron The Reform high-water-mark in Scotland was about 24%, in line with John Rogers' Crazification Factor hypothesis about politics. Bear in mind the press are mostly foaming unionist shills, and polling shows another boring SNP majority is the likeliest outcome.

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross Keir Starmer helped a lot by showing up this week. Is he really so self unaware he doesn't realize how reviled he is, as when Ana's Sarwar asked him not to come to Scotland (which he also ignored)?

Certainly there are members of his government who are to the right of Reform, like Shabana Mahmood.

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@fazalmajid I'm pretty sure the main party leaders exist in majestic isolation in a filter bubble created by their own support staff.

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross yes, and the way people like Morgan McSweeney exercise power is by cutting off the flows of information to the leader until he is dependent on the underling, then manipulating him that way

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross I fear The Greens will embrace totalitarianism as readily as Starmer Labour.

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@jtb Naah, recent experience in Scotland shows that a new party on the rise generally comes with all-new leaders (unless they're Reform UK wearing the flayed Tory party's skin as a cloak) who remember how they got there, and what it was like before. It takes a generation for the memories to fade and institutional capture to set in. (Looking at the SNP here.)

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross
_Entirely_ without evidence or investigation I incline to suspect he wants to force women to have _his_ babies, and may have already implemented attempts at this.
And is in congenial company in that Party.

(Congeners: blamed for hangovers)

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@Photo55 Yes, exactly. He's got a troublesome history with a neo-nazi eugenicist "think tank": always looks to be about 3 seconds away from spitting out the 14 words and goose-stepping off the podium sieg heiling.

Doomfrent Curdles

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross TBF Labour have lost many local elections in this constituency since 1931.

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@diffrentcolours Not according to their candidate last night … (are you conflating council elections, by-elections, and/or general elections?)

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross makes you wonder who really wants to enforce "Shari'a Law"?

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

My bad: apparently he was ranting about a "woke progressive and muslim" conspiracy. I forgot the P word, so obviously a dominant factor in English politics over the past seven decades.

inthebatcave.uk

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross progressive Wokes as opposed to Conservative wokes.

Fish Id Wardrobe

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross a conspiracy to vote against someone is, of course, just called a "majority"

David Penfold :verified:

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross Plumber?

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross Anyone trying to spin "Muslims voting for a woman in a party led by a gay Jewish man" (quote taken from elsewhere) as evidence of a Muslim conspiracy deserves every hard time they get.

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@arafel @cstross Until now, I didn't know that Zack Polanski was either gay or Jewish. I take it that has been a major shouting point in attempts to upset people who care about such things.

It is disappointing that an allegedly rational person has a religion (Pastafarainism excepted), but we're eroding that, slowly.

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@WellsiteGeo @arafel Judaism is as much an ethnicity as a religion. As constructed by post 18th century Christian anti-semitism, anyone born a Jew is always a Jew even if they convert to Christianity: you can't escape. By this definition, I'm Jewish.

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross I have to say it's really nice to wake up to some positive indicators for a change - at least somewhere in the world. Often my first thoughts on regaining consciousness in the morning are:
-My bladder is going to burst if I stay in bed any longer.
-There is coffee in the other room, but you'll need to get out of bed to make it.
-What fresh hell will I discover if I unlock my phone?

James Smith 💾

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross I love it when the fash claim that "people voting for what they want" is some sort of conspiracy of people ganging up on them. They're *so close* to getting it...

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

Gorton & Denton was the Green Party's 127th ranked target constituency, implying that on current popularity they'd win at least 127 seats in a general election—but probably more, because their G&D win margin was over 4000 votes, and they've broken out of their normal southern areas. Labour support among muslim voters has collapsed over Starmer's Gaza policy.

And 67% of voters rejected the far right politics of Reform, who got 29% of the vote.

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

It does not really work like that when it comes to projecting a by-election result onto a General Election, of course.

Although it would be interesting to see how the world would react to the GP becoming a major national level force in the U.K. at a General Election, the more cautious prediction is that next time the CUP is definitely going to come 4th in terms of seats won. It came close to their not being the Opposition last time, & their prospects have not improved.

Coral (bleached era)

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross reform got about 13% of the total eligible voters, so suggests they struggle break out of “committed racists” core base who are about 8-10%[1]

It’s only media hype that they’ve got so far!

1: https://media.ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/UKICE-FOCALDATA-MINORITIES-REPORT-081024-FINAL.pdf

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross And Labour played this game of "Keeping Reform out of office is just so important and only we can do that. If you vote for the Greens, you'll get Reform." They publicly tried to get the Green candidate to drop out using this argument, while offering nothing to the Greens as a party in return if they did this. I think now that the Greens were able to win this and buy a sizeable margin over both credible challengers, this sort of argument will be even less effective in future contests.

@[email protected] · 3 months ago

@cstross maybe he's upset that the Muslims are too woke compared to him.

Also Matt Goodwin is nothing but a pound shop Jordan Peterson trying to get on the same grift train.